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"Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year"

DC Lite #561

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Daily Chartbook
March 20, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Balance sheet backstop. "Nonfinancial corporations continue to see debt drop relative to final sales and to short-term liquidity. These are, in fact, the lowest levels dating back to 1965."

2. Oil price outlook. "Get used to higher oil prices this year, and next."

3. DXY speculators. "Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year ... They'd been holding bets on a weaker currency since mid-December."

4. Junk bonds vs. Treasuries. "A big distribution pattern is carving out in the Junk Bonds vs. Treasuries ratio. A breakdown here would be the last thing stock market bulls want to see."

5. SPX valuation. "The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.3. (down 2.8pts from the high... the market multiple hits correction territory)".

ICYMI

"If you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector"

DC Lite #560 | interest rate swaps, fed funds rate, GLD ETF outflows, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedge fund AI exposure, record S&P 500 analyst buy ratings

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-you-re-looking-for-a-sign-that-everyone-has-had-to-capitulate-on-longs-watch-the-ai-sector

"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559 | FOMC SEP uncertainty & risks, global financial conditions, Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread, breadth washout, global EPS broadening

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-we-re-waiting-for-a-true-market-flush-this-is-starting-to-smell-like-it-7b28

"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558 | Market-implied ceasefire timing, Fed funds rate expectations, Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, buyback blackout, magazine cover indicator

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-market-implied-pricing-of-a-ceasefire-only-goes-above-50-in-may-6b58

"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

DC Lite #557 | Financial conditions, policy pricing, money managers Brent positioning, junk market breadth, systematics equities positioning, S&P 500 trends

www.dailychartbook.com/p/investors-have-boosted-bullish-positions-in-brent-to-the-highest-since-before-the-pandemic-c329

"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors"

DC Lite #556 | Personal consumption expenditures, Q4 cyclical GDP, jet fuel prices surge, Advance-Decline Lines deteriorate, AI narrative fatigue

www.dailychartbook.com/p/real-growth-remains-stable-everywhere-except-in-the-most-cyclical-leading-sectors-c6df

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