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"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors"

DC Lite #556

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Daily Chartbook
March 13, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. PCE. "Services inflation breaking bad. PCE core services inflation excluding housing & financial imputations (right) finally broke out of the 2.7-3% range it's been in for two years, but to the upside, to 3.2%. Adding in core goods (left) yields 2.7% & an even-sharper recent breakout."

2. Q4 GDP. "Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors."

3. Jet fuel. "Jet fuel costs have increased by 81% since the start of the war in Iran and are up by 124% this year."

4. A/D Lines. Since the start of the US-Iran war, breadth has deteriorated sharply across large, mid, and small caps.

5. AI talk vs. price. Of the 485 earnings calls conducted between 12/15-3/11, a record 331 companies (68%) cited "AI". Notably, these companies have shown softer YTD price appreciation compared to those that did not mention "AI". Narrative fatigue?

ICYMI

Active manager exposure to US equities is sinking

DC Lite #555 | Global PMIs, Fed funds futures, 2026 rate cuts, oil, Strait of Hormuz, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedging activity S&P 500 call-put skew

www.dailychartbook.com/p/active-manager-exposure-to-us-equities-is-sinking-8aa8

"Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025"

DC Lite #554 | CPI vs. PCE divergence, fertilizer stocks rally, tech and industial corporate spreads, equity ETF flows, Schwab Trading Activity Index, STAX

www.dailychartbook.com/p/last-week-was-the-first-week-of-net-outflows-from-equity-etfs-since-roughly-april-2025-c1d7

"Historically, when vol reacts like this it has marked a tactical bottom in the S&P"

DC Lite #553 | February CPI estimates, oil vs. gas prices, Investment Manager Index, institutional risk appetite, weekly ETF flows, volatility capitulation

www.dailychartbook.com/p/historically-when-vol-reacts-like-this-it-has-marked-a-tactical-bottom-in-the-s-p-55e3

"The systematic community has yet to meaningfully de-risk"

DC Lite #552 | Job separation expectations, crude oil reversals, US Strategic Petroleum Reserves, systematic equity positioning, VIX reversals

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-systematic-community-has-yet-to-meaningfully-de-risk-7b18

"No silver lining to this jobs report"

DC Lite #551 | Big NFP miss, unemployment duration is rising, oil shock to hit refined products, gold, copper, energy, agriculture, VIX spikes to YTD high

www.dailychartbook.com/p/no-silver-lining-to-this-jobs-report-87ad

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