"Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025"

1. CPI vs. PCE. "This is a historically highly unusual divergence btwn the two common measures of aggregate inflation due to different coverage and weighting methodologies. Core CPI gives higher weights to shelter while core PCE to healthcare premiums paid by employers on consumers' behalf, say."

2. Fertilizer stocks. "Crude oil has pulled back from its high of over $110/barrel, but fertilizer stocks are still moving, hitting multi-year highs. This corner of the market still appears to be expecting petro price pressure."

3. Corporate spreads. "To be clear, this is still much more in the caution flag realm than 'uh-oh'. Private credit problems abound, but this looks more like a liquidity issue for debt pools than anything systemic for the economy (famous last words, I know). As I noted in a note several weeks ago, when tech OAS is wider than industrial OAS, now at its widest since 2016, the economy hic-cups, at least."

4. Equity ETF flows. "Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025."

5. Schwab Trading Activity Index. "When Wall Street zigged in February, Schwab clients zagged ... STAX enjoyed the biggest monthly percentage gain since late 2020, finishing February at 57.32, the highest reading for the headline since a 59.53 in February 2022."

ICYMI