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"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558

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Daily Chartbook
March 17, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Ceasefire timing. "The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May - quite a while from now still. Some supply chains should show stress before that."

2. Fed funds rate. "Prior to the crisis (2/27), options markets implied just a 7% probability of no rate hikes in 2026. That's now increased to 35%."

3. BETI. "Barclays' Equity Timing Indicator, or BETI, dropped to negative 8.3 overnight, its lowest level since President Donald Trump's tariff turmoil last April ... It reached a threshold that has historically marked 'highly attractive' entry points for stocks."

4. Buyback blackout. "We are expecting the next blackout window to begin this week ~3/18, estimating ~45% of the S&P 500 to be in blackout by that point, assuming entry 6 weeks prior to earnings ... We expect blackout to run through the end of April."

5. Magazine indicator. "For contrarian investors, a bearish cover story is a very bullish signal. Our recommendation to Go Global might make a comeback sooner rather than later."

ICYMI

"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

DC Lite #557 | Financial conditions, policy pricing, money managers Brent positioning, junk market breadth, systematics equities positioning, S&P 500 trends

www.dailychartbook.com/p/investors-have-boosted-bullish-positions-in-brent-to-the-highest-since-before-the-pandemic-c329

"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors"

DC Lite #556 | Personal consumption expenditures, Q4 cyclical GDP, jet fuel prices surge, Advance-Decline Lines deteriorate, AI narrative fatigue

www.dailychartbook.com/p/real-growth-remains-stable-everywhere-except-in-the-most-cyclical-leading-sectors-c6df

Active manager exposure to US equities is sinking

DC Lite #555 | Global PMIs, Fed funds futures, 2026 rate cuts, oil, Strait of Hormuz, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedging activity S&P 500 call-put skew

www.dailychartbook.com/p/active-manager-exposure-to-us-equities-is-sinking-8aa8

"Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025"

DC Lite #554 | CPI vs. PCE divergence, fertilizer stocks rally, tech and industial corporate spreads, equity ETF flows, Schwab Trading Activity Index, STAX

www.dailychartbook.com/p/last-week-was-the-first-week-of-net-outflows-from-equity-etfs-since-roughly-april-2025-c1d7

"Historically, when vol reacts like this it has marked a tactical bottom in the S&P"

DC Lite #553 | February CPI estimates, oil vs. gas prices, Investment Manager Index, institutional risk appetite, weekly ETF flows, volatility capitulation

www.dailychartbook.com/p/historically-when-vol-reacts-like-this-it-has-marked-a-tactical-bottom-in-the-s-p-55e3

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