"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

1. Financial conditions. "This framework decomposes movements in broad financial conditions into their macro drivers ... the policy factor has tightened materially, now sitting above two standard deviations, while the growth factor remains largely unchanged. Historically, valuations in the policy factor around these levels have tended to mark turning points for markets."

2. Money managers vs. Brent. "Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic as initial expectations of a short war between the United States and Iran have been replaced by fears about an extended conflict."

3. HY A/D Line. "US equities are not the only chart lines that have rolled over. Breadth in the public high yield market (using advance/decline data from FINRA) has turned sour at the same time. You've been hearing a lot about cracks in private credit. This is not that, but weakness in the junk market has been a good canary in the coal mine."

4. Systematic positioning. "We estimate that the community has sold $80bn of global equity in the last one month ... Overall length has gone from above an 8 out of 10 earlier this year to closer to a 6.5 now, and is projected to go nearer to a 4.5-5 all else equal after the upcoming baseline sales."

5. SPX trends. "Trends are changing... fast".

ICYMI