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"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559

Author

Daily Chartbook
March 18, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. FOMC. Uncertainty across forecasts rose, as did the associated risks.

2. Financial conditions. "The biggest development over the past two weeks has been the sharp tightening in global financial conditions. The GS Global FCI has risen more than 50bps over that span - the strongest tightening impulse since August 2023 and one of the largest moves outside of true crisis periods."

3. Investors Intelligence. "Bulls continue to stream toward the exits, with the II bull-bear spread dropping this week to its lowest level since June. All the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past decade have come with the bull-bear spread above 20%. Without bulls it's hard to have a bull market."

4. Bad breadth. "Every sector & industry group closed in the red on the worst breadth day of the year so far. If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it."

5. EPS broadening. "Pre‑shock, fundamental signals were firm and improving. Even now, earnings revisions remain net positive, with both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 staying in upgrade territory since last May; US continues to outperform the world on the broadening of the EPS cycle."

ICYMI

"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558 | Market-implied ceasefire timing, Fed funds rate expectations, Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, buyback blackout, magazine cover indicator

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-market-implied-pricing-of-a-ceasefire-only-goes-above-50-in-may-6b58

"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

DC Lite #557 | Financial conditions, policy pricing, money managers Brent positioning, junk market breadth, systematics equities positioning, S&P 500 trends

www.dailychartbook.com/p/investors-have-boosted-bullish-positions-in-brent-to-the-highest-since-before-the-pandemic-c329

"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors"

DC Lite #556 | Personal consumption expenditures, Q4 cyclical GDP, jet fuel prices surge, Advance-Decline Lines deteriorate, AI narrative fatigue

www.dailychartbook.com/p/real-growth-remains-stable-everywhere-except-in-the-most-cyclical-leading-sectors-c6df

Active manager exposure to US equities is sinking

DC Lite #555 | Global PMIs, Fed funds futures, 2026 rate cuts, oil, Strait of Hormuz, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedging activity S&P 500 call-put skew

www.dailychartbook.com/p/active-manager-exposure-to-us-equities-is-sinking-8aa8

"Last week was the first week of net outflows from equity ETFs since roughly April 2025"

DC Lite #554 | CPI vs. PCE divergence, fertilizer stocks rally, tech and industial corporate spreads, equity ETF flows, Schwab Trading Activity Index, STAX

www.dailychartbook.com/p/last-week-was-the-first-week-of-net-outflows-from-equity-etfs-since-roughly-april-2025-c1d7

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