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"If you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector"

DC Lite #560

Author

Daily Chartbook
March 19, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Interest rate swaps. "Bond traders are no longer pricing in any chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year after the Bank of England stoked concern that global central banks may need to act soon against inflation."

2. GLD ETF flows. Largest monthly outflow from $GLD since April 2013 (with 9 sessions to go).

3. NAAIM Exposure Index. Active managers continue to reduce exposure to US equities. Grey lines highlight times when NAAIM Exposure Index fell to similar levels over the past 3 years.

4. Hedge funds vs. AI. "Our prime book indicates record levels of AI positioning (and interestingly, near-record levels of Mag7 exposure has people have re-rotated into these names now that there are questions about growth again) ... if you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector."

5. Buy ratings. Of the 12,733 analysts ratings on stocks in the S&P 500, 58.2% of them are rated "BUY". This represents the largest percentage of buy ratings in FactSet data going back to 2010.

ICYMI

"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559 | FOMC SEP uncertainty & risks, global financial conditions, Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread, breadth washout, global EPS broadening

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-we-re-waiting-for-a-true-market-flush-this-is-starting-to-smell-like-it-7b28

"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558 | Market-implied ceasefire timing, Fed funds rate expectations, Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, buyback blackout, magazine cover indicator

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-market-implied-pricing-of-a-ceasefire-only-goes-above-50-in-may-6b58

"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

DC Lite #557 | Financial conditions, policy pricing, money managers Brent positioning, junk market breadth, systematics equities positioning, S&P 500 trends

www.dailychartbook.com/p/investors-have-boosted-bullish-positions-in-brent-to-the-highest-since-before-the-pandemic-c329

"Real growth remains stable everywhere, except in the most cyclical (leading) sectors"

DC Lite #556 | Personal consumption expenditures, Q4 cyclical GDP, jet fuel prices surge, Advance-Decline Lines deteriorate, AI narrative fatigue

www.dailychartbook.com/p/real-growth-remains-stable-everywhere-except-in-the-most-cyclical-leading-sectors-c6df

Active manager exposure to US equities is sinking

DC Lite #555 | Global PMIs, Fed funds futures, 2026 rate cuts, oil, Strait of Hormuz, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedging activity S&P 500 call-put skew

www.dailychartbook.com/p/active-manager-exposure-to-us-equities-is-sinking-8aa8

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