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"The SPX is pricing a 175bps daily move every session from now until June expiry"

DC Lite #563

Author

Daily Chartbook
March 24, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Flash PMIs. "The flash PMI survey data for March signal an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East ... The PMI data are indicative of GDP rising at an annualized rate of just 1.0% ... price gauges meanwhile point to consumer price inflation accelerating back to around 4%".

2. Implied Fed funds move. "The market just experienced [one] of the most extreme Fed expectation shifts of the past 20 years".

3. SPX implied moves. "The SPX is pricing a 175bps daily move every session from now until June expiry ... for context we have seen exactly two sessions where the daily move in SPX was >175bps since christmas ... i don't think the average trader's anxiety can handle 66 of those straight."

4. QQQ vs. SPX vol spread. "As focus shifts away from AI to macro risk, the excess risk premium for tech stocks have dissipated. This can be seen in the QQQ-SPX 1M implied volatility spread which has narrowed from a 1-year high of 8.4% in Feb to near a 1-year low of 2.6% last week."

5. Return drivers. Chart "shows what 'share' of the market's return has come from multiple expansion. That share is falling while the share from earnings and dividends is rising. That's painful over the short-term but healthy over the long-term."

ICYMI

"A day after the heaviest down volume in NYSE history, we get the heaviest up volume"

DC Lite #562 | US-Iran Pressure Index, gold ETF flows, US equity positioning indicator, NYSE up vs. down volume, S&P 500 valuation vs. profitability

www.dailychartbook.com/p/a-day-after-the-heaviest-down-volume-in-nyse-history-we-get-the-heaviest-up-volume-6431

"Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year"

DC Lite #561 | Strong corporate balance sheets, oil price forecasts, DXY speculators turn positive, junk bonds vs. Treasuries, S&P 500 multiple contraction

www.dailychartbook.com/p/traders-turned-positive-on-the-us-dollar-for-the-first-time-this-year-34fb

"If you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector"

DC Lite #560 | interest rate swaps, fed funds rate, GLD ETF outflows, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedge fund AI exposure, record S&P 500 analyst buy ratings

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-you-re-looking-for-a-sign-that-everyone-has-had-to-capitulate-on-longs-watch-the-ai-sector

"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559 | FOMC SEP uncertainty & risks, global financial conditions, Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread, breadth washout, global EPS broadening

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-we-re-waiting-for-a-true-market-flush-this-is-starting-to-smell-like-it-7b28

"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558 | Market-implied ceasefire timing, Fed funds rate expectations, Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, buyback blackout, magazine cover indicator

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-market-implied-pricing-of-a-ceasefire-only-goes-above-50-in-may-6b58

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