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"A day after the heaviest down volume in NYSE history, we get the heaviest up volume"

DC Lite #562

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Daily Chartbook
March 23, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Pressure Index. "Apparently, Deutsche Bank has a 'Pressure Index' that is flagging a de-escalation with Iran is warranted, and fast".

2. Gold ETF flows. "Three consecutive weeks of net outflows from global gold ETFs - last week's outflows nearly US$5bn (~29 tonnes). North America and Europe drove the outflows, while Asia saw minor inflows. YTD, gold ETFs are still comfortably in net inflow territory"

3. US equity positioning. "The GS Sentiment Indicator has fallen from +1.40 at the start of January to -0.32 now - a meaningful reset, but still far from the levels that have historically marked durable SPX lows ... The current reading suggests investors are no longer aggressively long - but not yet underweight either. The positioning reset has begun, but it is difficult to argue that process is complete."

4. Up vs. down volume. "A day after the heaviest down volume in NYSE history, we get the heaviest up volume. Totally normal market."

5. Valuation vs. profitability. "When we map recent developments onto our Valuation vs Profitability framework, we can see that the market is now trading more than one standard deviation below its long-term trend."

ICYMI

"Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year"

DC Lite #561 | Strong corporate balance sheets, oil price forecasts, DXY speculators turn positive, junk bonds vs. Treasuries, S&P 500 multiple contraction

www.dailychartbook.com/p/traders-turned-positive-on-the-us-dollar-for-the-first-time-this-year-34fb

"If you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector"

DC Lite #560 | interest rate swaps, fed funds rate, GLD ETF outflows, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedge fund AI exposure, record S&P 500 analyst buy ratings

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-you-re-looking-for-a-sign-that-everyone-has-had-to-capitulate-on-longs-watch-the-ai-sector

"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559 | FOMC SEP uncertainty & risks, global financial conditions, Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread, breadth washout, global EPS broadening

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-we-re-waiting-for-a-true-market-flush-this-is-starting-to-smell-like-it-7b28

"The market-implied pricing of a ceasefire only goes above 50% in May"

DC Lite #558 | Market-implied ceasefire timing, Fed funds rate expectations, Barclays Equity Timing Indicator, buyback blackout, magazine cover indicator

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-market-implied-pricing-of-a-ceasefire-only-goes-above-50-in-may-6b58

"Investors have boosted bullish positions in Brent to the highest since before the pandemic"

DC Lite #557 | Financial conditions, policy pricing, money managers Brent positioning, junk market breadth, systematics equities positioning, S&P 500 trends

www.dailychartbook.com/p/investors-have-boosted-bullish-positions-in-brent-to-the-highest-since-before-the-pandemic-c329

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