Tech's premium over the S&P 500 has all but vanished

DC Lite #564

Author

Daily Chartbook
March 25, 2026

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1. Hormuz negotiation window. "I am not sure that is in Tehran's interest to hold out forever. If they usher in a 1970s style global recession, the ‘gloves are off.’ They too have an interest in negotiating somewhere within the Area N. As close to R Point as possible, YES."

2. DXY vs. rate differential. "The dollar's recent gains have been far more modest than what might have been expected. But rate diffs actually suggest a weaker USD."

3. Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator. "The 1-month moving average of the [EEI] has fallen close to its 30y average of 7.3%, having started the year in double digits territory. The recent decline is likely a function of both US equities selling-off on the back of the Iranian conflict, as well as seasonality headwinds."

4. Tech vs. SPX. Tech's premium over the S&P 500 has all but vanished: now at the lowest since early 2019.

5. Profit outlooks. "The profit outlook for S&P 500 companies has been improving even as share prices have fallen - a dynamic rarely seen during episodes of geopolitical uncertainty ... The setup has historically rewarded investors willing to look through near-term pain."

ICYMI

"The SPX is pricing a 175bps daily move every session from now until June expiry"

DC Lite #563 | US Flash PMIs, implied Fed funds move, SPX daily implied moves, QQQ-SPX implied volatility spread, S&P 500 return drivers

www.dailychartbook.com/p/the-spx-is-pricing-a-175bps-daily-move-every-session-from-now-until-june-expiry-31d2

"A day after the heaviest down volume in NYSE history, we get the heaviest up volume"

DC Lite #562 | US-Iran Pressure Index, gold ETF flows, US equity positioning indicator, NYSE up vs. down volume, S&P 500 valuation vs. profitability

www.dailychartbook.com/p/a-day-after-the-heaviest-down-volume-in-nyse-history-we-get-the-heaviest-up-volume-6431

"Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year"

DC Lite #561 | Strong corporate balance sheets, oil price forecasts, DXY speculators turn positive, junk bonds vs. Treasuries, S&P 500 multiple contraction

www.dailychartbook.com/p/traders-turned-positive-on-the-us-dollar-for-the-first-time-this-year-34fb

"If you're looking for a sign that everyone has had to capitulate on longs, watch the AI sector"

DC Lite #560 | interest rate swaps, fed funds rate, GLD ETF outflows, NAAIM Exposure Index, hedge fund AI exposure, record S&P 500 analyst buy ratings

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-you-re-looking-for-a-sign-that-everyone-has-had-to-capitulate-on-longs-watch-the-ai-sector

"If we're waiting for a true market flush, this is starting to smell like it"

DC Lite #559 | FOMC SEP uncertainty & risks, global financial conditions, Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread, breadth washout, global EPS broadening

www.dailychartbook.com/p/if-we-re-waiting-for-a-true-market-flush-this-is-starting-to-smell-like-it-7b28

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