DC Lite #499

"This 23-year chart shows just how unusual the stock market has been in 2024-2025"

Author

Daily Chartbook
December 15, 2025

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Fed chair. Kevin Warsh (orange) has flipped Kevin Hassett (light blue) in betting markets for the next Fed chair.

2. Yields vs. SPX. "10yr has gone from 3.9% to 4.2% quickly.. Equities often struggle when interest rates rise sharply."

3. US equity positioning. Goldman's US equity positioning indicator rose to its highest since February but remains at moderate levels.

4. Implied correlation. "This 23-year chart shows just how unusual the stock market has been in 2024-2025. Investors expected single stock correlations to be lower than any time on record. Over the past 6-months correlation was even lower than expected ... Looking ahead to 2026, investors are expecting a correlation of 23% for names in the S&P 500."

5. Rotation. "Flows are rotating into undervalued cyclicals, small-capitalization stocks and economically sensitive segments of the market as traders position to benefit from the anticipated boost in economic growth next year."

ICYMI

DC Lite #498

"Cyclical sectors are leading the breakout list"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-498

DC Lite #497

Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE A-D Lines made new ATHs today

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-497

DC Lite #496

"We've done over $300bn in equity ETFs over the last 3 months"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-496

DC Lite #495

Job openings surprised to the upside in October. Rates point to a weaker report than the headline suggests

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-495

DC Lite #494

"The sharp decline in funding spreads over the past week suggests professional investors sold into recent strength"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-494

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