DC Lite #497

Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE A-D Lines made new ATHs today

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Daily Chartbook
December 11, 2025

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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Jobless claims. Following the pervious week's big drop, initial claims jumped by the most since March 2020 in the week ending Dec 6. This data series is typically volatile around the holidays. Continuing claims, meanwhile, fell to the lowest since April.

2. Inflation swaps. "Market signals suggest that concern about rising inflation, and in particular the impact of tariffs, has almost evaporated ... The market thinks the one-time price effect of the tariffs will be over a year from now. Market and Fed seem to agree that inflation has been tamed."

3. Tech rally ends. "$XLK is down today after rallying 13 consecutive days. Historically, when $XLK broke a 10+ day winning streak, it rallied 9 out of 10 times, 2 months later."

4. Advance-Decline Lines. Both the S&P 500 and the NYSE A-D Lines made new ATHs today.

5. Size vs. factor. The theme since Nov 20 (recent bottom): Small > Mid > Large, and Value > Growth.

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ICYMI

DC Lite #496

"We've done over $300bn in equity ETFs over the last 3 months"

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DC Lite #495

Job openings surprised to the upside in October. Rates point to a weaker report than the headline suggests

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DC Lite #494

"The sharp decline in funding spreads over the past week suggests professional investors sold into recent strength"

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DC Lite #493

"The wave of systematic selling has faded, and vol-targeting strategies are starting to re-lever"

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DC Lite #492

AAII investors increased their allocation to stocks to the highest since November 2021

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