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- DC Lite #443
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. Retail sales. "Total sales rose 0.6% M/M, above 0.2% consensus, matching July's 0.6%. Retail Sales Ex-Autos climbed 0.7% M/M (consensus +0.4%, prior +0.4%). Control Group sales also increased 0.7% M/M (consensus +0.4%, prior +0.5%). Y/Y sales accelerated to 5.0% from 4.1%."
2. Consumer spending. "The U.S. economy is being largely powered by the well-to-do. As long as they keep spending, the economy should avoid recession, but if they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem."
3. Equity Euphoria Indicator. Barclay's euphoria indicator is climbing again.
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4. Risk appetite. "In typical Goldilocks regimes, our Risk Appetite Indicator is supported by: Growth optimism ... More dovish monetary policy expectations ... A weaker Dollar ... In plain terms: investors are not long enough. Commentary about market exuberance is misplaced—there is no exuberance."
5. XLP vs. SPY. "In case you’re wondering which type of environment we’re in right now, here’s the Consumer Staples sector relative to the S&P 500 hitting new all-time lows. During healthy markets, this line tends to go down. Currently, the line has never been more down."
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