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DC Lite #441
"Margins tend to decline before recessions which is not what is happening now"
Daily Chartbook
September 12, 2025
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1. Retirees vs. US consumption. "Retirees continue to make up more and more of US consumption. Less sensitive to job market feedback loops, although still sensitive to wealth effect from home values etc."
2. Liquidity vs. yield curve. "A Fed ease will be BIG for the stock market. This is the only Bull mrkt in post-war history which has lived its entire existence with negative excess financial liquidity and with an inverted yield curve. This is about to change and stocks will love it!"
3. SPX vs. shutdowns. "I have no idea if the Government will shutdown soon. What I can say is if it does, it isn't a big deal for markets. In fact, up 12 months later more than 85% of the time and up nearly 13% on average a year later says don't get worked up."
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4. Margins vs. recessions. "Margins tend to decline before recessions which is not what is happening now."
5. Q3 EPS estimates. Analysts have increased EPS estimates for Q3 by 0.6% since June 30. Typically, analysts lower estimates during the quarter.
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