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DC Lite #436
Newsletter writers are the most bullish since late 2024
Daily Chartbook
September 05, 2025
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1. NFP. "Jobs gain diffusion across private sectors is recessionary. 5th consecutive month with fewer than half of the private sectors adding jobs."
2. Unemployment rate. Both the unemployment rate (4.3%) and the broader U6 unemployment rate (8.1%) rose to the highest levels since Oct'21.
3. Gold vs. silver positioning. "Futures positioning shows that investors have undone the rotation from Silver to Gold of the past few months and have gone back into the yellow metal."
4. Investor Intelligence. Newsletter writers are the most bullish since late 2024.
5. September vs. rate cut. "Contrary to consensus, we think September is going to be an up month, and that's because the Fed's been on hold all year and it's going to cut for the first time in September. That's only happened twice in the last 50 years ... and markets did well both times."
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