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DC Lite #435
"The bond market is 'bracing' for a significant uptick in volatility"
Daily Chartbook
September 04, 2025
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. Challenger job cuts. Employers announced 85.9k job cuts in August, an increase of 39% MoM and 13% YoY.
2. ADP. "ADP Employment rose by 54K in August, falling short of the 65K consensus and sharply lower than July's 106K."
3. US sector PMI. "August data highlighted a rise in business activity across all seven US sectors monitored by the survey, up from five in July and the first broad-based expansion since February."
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4. MOVE. “The MOVE is an index of options' implied volatility of 30-day interest rates from 2-year to 30-year. So, the MOVE is a market expectation of what MIGHT BE coming ... the bond market is ‘bracing’ for a significant uptick in volatility.”
5. AI adoption rates. "Wonder why there is still so much bullishness around AI technology? Look at how minimal the adoption has been of AI."
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