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DC Lite #434
"Consumers expect their seasonal spending to decline on average by 5% from 2024 — the first notable drop since 2020"
Daily Chartbook
September 03, 2025
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1. Homeowners vs. renters. "The number of homeowner households fell 0.1% year over year in the second quarter—a small decline, but the first since 2016. Meanwhile, the number of renter households rose 2.6%—one of the biggest increases in recent years."
2. Holiday Outlook survey. "Consumers expect their seasonal spending to decline on average by 5% from 2024 — the first notable drop since 2020. More broadly, 84% expect to cut back over the next six months, citing rising prices, new tariffs and the higher cost of living."
3. JOLTS. The job openings rate ticked down to 4.3% in July (4.4% prev) as available positions fell by more than expected. Rates for hires, quits, and layoffs & discharges were unchanged. The number of vacancies per unemployed worker fell below 1 for the first time in more than 4 years.
4. US vs. RoW. "Tracking as the worst year since 2009."
5. Global valuations. "Non-US markets, while cheap relative to the US, are not particularly inexpensive relative to their own history."
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