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- DC Lite #433
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. DXY vs. rate differentials. "The fall in the Dollar is explained almost entirely by rate differentials moving against the Dollar."
2. RoW vs. DXY. "Since 1970, intl. stocks have only had 3 secular leadership cycles and each of these coincided with a secular decline in the US dollar. Has a 4th secular decline in the dollar begun making the case for a secular overweight in intl. stocks?"
3. ETF fund flows. "Investors seem to be pulling assets from the major equity index ETFs ... Is this a result of traders trying to front run bearish seasonality in September? If they are wrong, then this bearish flow activity could setup for a contrarian move that fuels the next leg up."
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4. Bearish talk vs. flows. "2025 in Two Charts. Media mentions of the word 'bearish' tripling YoY (other words like 'stagflation' also w big jumps) while SPY hits ATHs repeatedly and ETF flows are 12% ahead of last years record pace. In other words, doomerism has simply fallen on deaf ears."
5. Credit spreads. "Here, we usually like to say that nothing really bad happens when investment grade spreads are below 100 ... Some investors will be happy to see we’re deep in the green — proof there’s no need to panic. Others will see it as a sign of dangerous complacency."
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