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DC Lite #440
"Most investors see the Copper/Gold ratio at record lows as a warning that recession is near. But history tells a different story."
Daily Chartbook
September 11, 2025
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. CPI. "Inflation is broadening. Here's percent of items that had at least a 3 percent (annualized) price increase over the last month, something Waller used to flag the 2023 disinflation."
2. Wage Tracker. Wage growth for job switchers jumped to 4.4% in August (4% prev) while growth for job stayers dropped to 3.8% (4.1% prev). The spread between the two is now at the highest since May'24. Overall wage growth was unchanged at 4.1%.
3. AAII Sentiment Survey. Bears accounted for nearly half of responses to the latest survey at 49.5%, the most since early May.
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4. SPX vs. Copper/Gold. "Most investors see the Copper/Gold ratio at record lows as a warning that recession is near. But history tells a different story. One year after such signals, the S&P 500 gained 91% of the time with a median return of 15.7%."
5. Small cap EPS growth. Forward "earnings growth for Small Caps has accelerated recently ... with 2Q25 results significantly outperforming Large caps ex-Tech."
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