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DC Lite #437
The Tech sector's YTD gain has been driven entirely by earnings growth
Daily Chartbook
September 08, 2025
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1. Labor market expectations. "Job finding is the risk in the labor market. According to the NY Fed SCE, the probability of losing a job remains relatively low. However, the mean probability of finding a job if you lose one today plunged to 44.91%, a level never before seen in the history of this survey."
2. XLY fund flows. Last week's fund flows into XLY (large-cap Consumer Discretionary ETF) were the largest in 2 years.
3. R2K vs. ATHs. The Russell 2000 has now gone a record 960 days without reaching a new all-time high, surpassing the streak that followed the GFC.
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4. Index breadth. "The takeaway is simple: across multiple timeframes, most major indexes are tilted toward strength."
5. Sector return components. The Tech sector's YTD gain has been driven entirely by earnings growth.
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