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DC Lite #439
"Defense Sentiment is at one of the lowest levels of 2025"
Daily Chartbook
September 10, 2025
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1. PPI. "The PPI margins index fell 1.7% in August to its lowest level since April. This would tend to indicate weaker direct pass-through to consumer prices with tariffs likely being absorbed by the firms themselves."
2. STAX. "Schwab clients became more enthusiastic buyers [in August] … Clients tracked by STAX remained large net-sellers of info tech shares overall but continued buying big names like Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR). They also gravitated toward sectors like financials and health care during August and generally showed more willingness to look beyond the mega-caps."
3. Sector sentiment. "Sentiment Spread has remained elevated despite the fall in both Offense and Defense Sector Sentiment. Defense Sentiment is at one of the lowest levels of 2025."
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4. AI vs. SPX. "The 30 or so AI stocks in S&P 500 have a combined 43% of market cap. Even more compelling, these names have driven almost all of the returns and most of earnings growth since ChatGPT / Nov 2022."
5. SPX operating margin vs. GDP. "If nominal GDP growth slows further, margins are likely to come under increasing pressure, with rate cuts only likely to provide limited support."
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