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DC Lite #442
"Foreign investors are now removing dollar exposure at an unprecedented pace"
Daily Chartbook
September 15, 2025
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1. Recession risks. "There is an uncomfortably high 48% probability that the U.S. economy will suffer a recession in the next 12 months … It’s less than 50%, but historically, the probability has never gotten this high, and a recession has not ensued."
2. Early-cycle signs. "Historically, these are classic early-cycle signs. Businesses see more activity, so they add hours and temps before committing to costly full-time hires."
3. Foreign inflows. "Foreign investors are now removing dollar exposure at an unprecedented pace … The dollar is falling because the unhedged flow picture looks very weak. With the Fed about to start cutting rates while most other central banks are on hold, hedging dollar assets will only get cheaper."
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4. Funding spreads. "The further increase in funding spreads shows that global macro investors continue to re-risk. We see this as a tailwind for equities over the coming weeks just as it was a headwind in January-April."
5. SPX earnings. "Positive S&P 500 earnings revisions are very uncommon unless the US economy is coming out of a recession, so the Street’s recent bullishness on future index earnings is nothing short of remarkable."
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