DC Lite #538

1. Financial conditions. "Ordinarily, improving growth would prompt markets to price a more hawkish policy path, tightening conditions in a countercyclical fashion. That offset has so far been absent ... markets have pushed yields lower and eased financial conditions further even as the growth backdrop has strengthened and the case for additional policy easing has diminished."

2. DXY positioning. "When Large Traders come off a fairly large net short position, it often has led to a stronger Dollar ... This could be a significant turning point for commodities, stocks and sectors with high forex sensitivity."

3. Retail options flows. "Retail degenerates have been taking it easy in the options market since last October's blow off top in their beloved names..."

4. Flows vs. tax refund season. "US equity fund inflows tend to pick up sharply during tax refund season. History suggests the next few weeks could see another wave of cash hitting the market".

5. Discretionary vs. Staples. "It's not that Boats and Beach Trips are being crushed - it's that people are stocking up on Beers and BubbleGum".

ICYMI