DC Lite #534

1. NFIB. “No capex boom for small firms. Small business capital spending intentions continue to slide. According to NFIB, the net percent of firms planning capital outlays fell to 18 in January, the lowest since April 2025.”

2. Retail sales. Retail sales were unchanged in December (vs. 0.4% est, 0.6% prev). Sales ex-auto were also flat while control group sales—used to calculate GDP—declined for the first time in 3 months (-0.1% vs 0.4% est).

3. Weekly ETF flows. “U.S. large caps dominated inflows last week, followed by global equities and consumer cyclicals ... high yield bonds saw most outflows, but broader fixed income universe was still positive”.

4. Software short interest. “Shorts have stacked up record bets against SaaS”.

5. Small cap rotation. “Small Caps (Russell 2000 & S&P 600) have outperformed the Nasdaq‑100 by 13% over the past 6 months - the strongest relative run in 5 years during a rising market.”

ICYMI