DC Lite #522

"EM earnings revisions have never inflected this well"

Author

Daily Chartbook
January 23, 2026

Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Dollar debasement. "Dollar debasement has begun. The Dollar versus EM (blue) is the best leading indicator for what's going on in FX markets and this has been falling since the Fed's Dec. 10 rate cut. 2026 will see a resumption of Dollar weakness after a pause in H2 2025..."

2. Commodity Nations. "The commodity nations aren't just ripping to new highs in absolute terms. They're dramatically outperforming the United States. This looks like a trend that has staying power."

3. Semis rally. Since Apr'25, "SMH’s advance is very similar to what we saw off the 2020 COVID lows ... nine months into the move ... the pace has been exactly the same."

4. Energy vs. Treasuries. "Energy can rally on its own for short bursts — but when bonds stay supported, those rallies tend to stall. That’s exactly what happened [in 2024]. No follow-through. No legs."

5. Emerging Market EPS. "EM earnings revisions have never inflected this well".

ICYMI

DC Lite #521

"The crowd is alert, invested, and managing risk"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-521

DC Lite #520

"The US stock market is rebalancing in one of the best ways possible"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-520

DC Lite #519

"Some believe market valuations are highly predictive of forward returns. We’re skeptical"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-519

DC Lite #518

"Household balance sheets are in the best shape we’ve seen for decades"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-518

DC Lite #517

"The bond market has never been so quiet"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-517

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