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DC Lite #455
"Households, in the aggregate, have a lot of cash on hand"
Daily Chartbook
October 02, 2025
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1. Construction jobs. "As of August 2025, the ratio of residential construction payrolls to housing permits stands at 2.5; this is the highest level since 2012. This ratio is about 10% higher than its average in 2024. There’s no need to hold onto workers that are not doing anything."
2. Employment data. "The US economy added +60K jobs in September according to Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS) ... RPLS data is highly correlated with the BLS (0.74) and independent of ADP (0.54). A regression model using both suggests the BLS would have reported +38K jobs in September."
3. Household liquidity. "Households continue to hold a lot of liquidity relative to debt, for all age groups … another way to see the same thing --- liquidity as a percent of net worth. Households, in the aggregate, have a lot of cash on hand."
4. AAII Asset Allocation. This cohort increased stock allocation by 1pp in September (to 68.3%), erasing the previous month’s dip. Bond allocation edged up by 0.1pp (to 16.3%) while cash levels dropped to YTD lows (15.4%).
5. Hyperscaler capex. JPMorgan estimates the 5 major AI hyperscalers will spend a combined $1.2 trillion from 2025 through 2027.
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