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DC Lite #453
"Over past week, significant outflows for equities across board, while most areas of fixed income saw inflows"
Daily Chartbook
September 30, 2025
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1. Home prices. "The median sale price of starter homes hit a record $260,508 in August, up 2.2% from a year earlier."
2. Core US payrolls. "It is rare to see periods like the one we are in now, where employment is flatlining. (By 'rare', I mean it has literally never happened before.) Worse, when that indicator slips below zero, it has ALWAYS been the start of a material contraction in employment."
3. Oil vs. OPEC+. "Crude is slumping on reports that OPEC+ may accelerate the latest round of production hikes. Yet the price reaction may be fleeting. Oil markets have largely shrugged off OPEC+ headlines over the past few months."
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4. Weekly ETF flows. "Over past week, significant outflows for equities across board, while most areas of fixed income saw inflows ... precious metals saw most interest."
5. Retail activity. "Citadel Securities’ Retail Equity client seasonal demand trends from the last 8 years: Sep weakest → Oct builds → Nov strongest ... Retail Options client volume typically rebounds into the final quarter of the calendar year. Activity picks back up in Q4, with November the strongest month of the year."
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