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DC Lite #450
"This chart might be the simplest explanation for US equity market resilience since 2011: limited supply"
Daily Chartbook
September 25, 2025
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1. Jobless claims. Following the early-month spike, initial claims have now dropped sharply 2 weeks in a row. Continuing claims also declined by more than expected. Both are consistent with a slow-to-hire, slow-to-fire labor market.
2. GDP. "Pretty notable upward revisions to 2Q25 real GDP growth this morning: up 50bps to 3.8% from 3.3% prior. All of the upward revision was due to stronger than previously reported Consumer spending on of Services, Business Investment and a modest bump to Government consumption."
3. Capital scarcity vs. positioning. "Capital cycle and crowding update for thematic ETF's. Noteworthy that robotics and automation remain relatively uncrowded and capital scarce compared to its own 10y history."
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4. Tariffs vs. margins. "Even if we assume the two-thirds burden sticks, that would be a hit to corporate profits – around 5% -- which doesn’t look like an economy-crushing number. In fact, margins would still be above their 2019 levels."
5. Net equity supply. "This chart might be the simplest explanation for US equity market resilience since 2011: limited supply."
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