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DC Lite #447
"Individual Stocks are not overbought — unlike at previous tops of significance"
Daily Chartbook
September 22, 2025
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1. Spending vs. recession. "Consumption has never declined in front of an economic slump...I think what this analysis shows is that if you are waiting on the consumer to make a call about a turn in the business cycle, you are likely waiting too long."
2. Gold ETF flows. Friday's daily inflow to global gold ETFs was the largest since January 2021.
3. Equity positioning. "Things you don’t see at the top of a Bubble… Goldman’s Total Positioning Indicator is STILL slightly underweight US equities."
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4. Overbought vs. oversold. "Individual Stocks are not overbought — unlike at previous tops of significance."
5. Forward EPS. "Forward 12-month earnings estimates for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow all made new highs on Friday."
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