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DC Lite #445
All 4 major indices hit new all-time highs today in unison for the first time since 2021
Daily Chartbook
September 18, 2025
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1. Jobless claims. Initial claims dropped by 33k to 231k (vs. 240k est), erasing the previous week's noisy spike. Continuing claims also fell by more than expected to 1,920,000, the fewest since May.
2. FFR outlook. "We continue to expect 25bp cuts in October and December—with a 50bp cut possible if the labor market weakens more than we expect—followed by two cuts next year to 3-3.25%. Our probability-weighted Fed path remains a bit more dovish than market pricing."
3. 10-year vs. inflation expectations. "Bond yields have significantly parted company with inflation expectations since 2022."
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4. ATHs. All 4 major indices hit new all-time highs today in unison for the first time since 2021.
5. SPX return drivers. "Sales growth & margin expansion [are] powering S&P 500 returns in 2025, much more so than multiple expansion."
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