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- DC Lite #418
DC Lite #418
"Q2 earnings are nearly quadrupling preseason estimates"
Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. SLOOS. "Not an encouraging sign for a capex boom. According to the Q3 Sr. Loan Office Opinion Survey, the net percent of banks reporting stronger demand for C&I loans to large and medium-sized firms slid to -28.6, the worst performance since Q4 2023."
2. 10-year. "For the last three years, changes in nominal 10-year yields have mostly come from shifts in real yields, not from inflation expectations ... The real swing factor is real yields — and right now, they’re the only thing that can actually push nominal yields down."
3. HFs vs. R2K. "In the past 2 Commitment of Traders reports, Hedge Fund Russell 2k shorts surged to a new record. Specifically over July 22nd - August 5th, Hedge Fund short sold $4.3bn - the largest 2 week amount for at least the past 10 years. The resultant level of outstanding shorts in notional terms also marked a new high."
4. Earnings surprise. "Q2 earnings are nearly quadrupling preseason estimates."
5. Earnings revisions. "The percentage of S&P 500 companies with positive three-month percent changes in their forward earnings jumped to 84.1% last week. This measure of earnings breadth augurs well for the bull market and suggests that it could broaden in the coming months."
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