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DC Lite #416
"Historically, margin debt tends to rise with equities, supporting bullish trends rather than derailing them. The real risk comes when leverage starts to unwind"
Daily Chartbook
August 07, 2025
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1. Home asking prices. "The median U.S. asking price rose just 2.3% year over year during the four weeks ending August 3, one of the smallest increases in two years. Sellers have started pricing lower in response to the buyer’s market; Redfin economists predict sale prices will fall 1% by the end of the year."
2. Margin debt vs. Wilshire 5000. "Historically, margin debt tends to rise with equities, supporting bullish trends rather than derailing them. The real risk comes when leverage starts to unwind. We would worry if margin debt declines while the SPX rallies, a pattern that preceded major market peaks in 2000, 2007, 2018, 2019, and late 2021."
3. NAAIM Exposure Index. Active managers increased exposure to US equities by the most in 3 months.
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4. Implied vs. realized vol. "Investors are jumpy ... markets expect higher volatility than what we’ve seen lately."
5. Revenue per employee. "It takes 1.55 employees for S&P 500 companies to generate a whopping $1 million dollars of revenue today ... In 1991, to generate that same $1 million of (inflation-adjusted, don’t come at me) revenue, it took 2.46 employees."
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