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DC Lite #412
"If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%"
Daily Chartbook
August 01, 2025
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1. NFP. "The -253K 2M downward revision to payroll employment is the largest since at least 1979, other than April 2020."
2. Unemployment rate. "If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%."
3. NBER indicators. "Here are the 'Big 6' indicators the NBER tracks to determine whether the US has entered a recession. I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but it’s a close call."
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4. AAII asset allocation. In July, retail investors' allocation to stocks rose to the highest (68.3%) since January while bond (15.7%) and cash (16.0%) allocations fell to 4- and 7-month lows, respectively.
5. Q3 estimates. "During the month of July, analysts slightly increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter ... In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter."
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