DC Lite #412

"If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%"

Daily Chartbook
August 01, 2025

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1. NFP. "The -253K 2M downward revision to payroll employment is the largest since at least 1979, other than April 2020."

@ernietedeschi

2. Unemployment rate. "If not for collapsing labor force participation since April, unemployment would've climbed to 4.9% today instead of 4.25%."

@econ_parker

3. NBER indicators. "Here are the 'Big 6' indicators the NBER tracks to determine whether the US has entered a recession. I don’t think we’re quite there yet, but it’s a close call."

@peterberezinbca

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4. AAII asset allocation. In July, retail investors' allocation to stocks rose to the highest (68.3%) since January while bond (15.7%) and cash (16.0%) allocations fell to 4- and 7-month lows, respectively.

AAII

5. Q3 estimates. "During the month of July, analysts slightly increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter ... In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter."

FactSet

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