"You're not crazy to think about 2021"

1. JOLTS. "April's jump in openings won't survive revisions. It was driven almost entirely by professional & business services, where recent first estimates have been very noisy and later revised away. JOLTS openings look flat elsewhere, and are still falling on the Indeed & LinkUp measures".

2. US SPR. "Based on current trends, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) would reach operational minimum levels around August. The drawdown pace is surpassing what was seen during the SPR release authorized by the Biden admin in 2022."

3. Retail sentiment. "Schwab Retail Client Sentiment Survey Q2 2026: 58% are bearish US stocks".

4. 2021 vs. 2026. "You're not crazy to think about 2021 ... But here's the key difference ... In 2021, you'll notice that it was the smallest companies, the mini bubbles, that had the highest returns. That was GameStop, AMC, the meme stocks. In 2026 it's the largest companies that have generated the returns. Think Micron, AMD, Western Digital."

5. Software EPS revisions. "The software EPS revision ratio (a breadth measure of EPS) has surged to an 8-year high. Along with the strongest EPS season in 5 years, even software stocks have seen a surge in upgrades, with 24 of the 30 US software stocks seeing higher '26 and '27 EPS revisions."

ICYMI