"Retail optimism in Tech is reaching a near record"

1. Iran war bill. "$100 billion. That's our estimate of the cost of the Iran War to American households. That's nearly $750 per household. This includes the additional U.S. military costs and the higher energy and other prices resulting from the war."

2. Asset Allocator Survey. "The most powerful money managers' optimism appears undented. Perhaps more surprisingly, they increasingly believe that multiples will expand, even though many measures are historically high. This is the first time a majority have expected multiples to rise since the worst of the pandemic."

3. Retail opening options. "Retail optimism in Tech is reaching a near record, with bullish trades making up almost two-thirds of all retail opening options activity in the mega-cap Tech stocks (e.g. buying calls or selling puts to open)."

4. Hedge funds vs. Industrials. "Short exposure in Industrials now sits in the 90th/96th percentiles vs. the past 1-year/5-years."

5. Breadth streaks. "A breadth thrust is conspicuous by its absence at this point and while the S&P 500 closed at new highs every day last week, every day also brought more stocks in the index declining than advancing. This matches the longest such daily breadth losing streak since 2024."

ICYMI