"Asset managers have built their largest net short position in Fed Funds futures since early 2023"

1. US Redbook Index. Same-store retail sales remain hot, +9% YoY for the week ending May 23 (+8.1% prev).

2. Fed funds futures positioning. "Asset managers have built their largest net short position in Fed Funds futures since early 2023, a year that saw the Fed hike four times."

3. SPX vs. Fed policy rate. "It took 1.75% rate hikes to break the late 1990s earningsless equity run. More than a few 'taps on the brakes'."

4. Equal-weight highs. "The average stock inside the most important indexes in the world has literally never been stronger."

5. SPX price vs. EPS. "Earnings growth has powered the entire S&P 500 return so far this year, and we expect this dynamic will continue in the coming months".

ICYMI