"Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them"

1. Flash PMIs. "Firms' costs have jumped higher at a pace not seen since the energy price shock of 2022 and are being passed on to customers in the form of sharply higher selling prices."

2. Energy bailout. "Are we going to see a big fiscal response to the energy crisis? That was what happened after the Ukraine war, when governments across Europe unveiled bailout programmes worth around 5% of GDP over two years ... it appears there has been a strong presumption that more bailouts are on the way ... We think this narrative is overblown."

3. EPS growth vs. Fed Funds rate. "Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them."

4. Energy vs. bonds. “The US 30-Year Yield $TYX is seeing resistance at the 5% level. That also marks the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the decline into the generational Covid lows. The Energy Stocks vs Bonds ratio had the exact same setup... it already broke out.”

5. Mag 7 vs. Other 493. Looking ahead, analysts have increased CY26 EPS estimates for both cohorts. However, the growth spread between the two is now expected to widen as oppose to shrinking.

ICYMI