"Did we just see the 10th pivot in rates since 2023?"

NEW: Daily Chartbook Studies

Don’t forget to check out our new home for interactive backtest dashboards and market studies at studies.dailychartbook.com 

New studies published this week:

1) S&P 500 Goes From 6% Below its 50DMA to 8% Above It

2) Nasdaq-100 Rolling YoY% Crosses > +1 Std

The goal is simple: take the kinds of historical signal tests we often reference here and make them easier to explore visually — forward returns, hit rates, signal paths, drawdowns, and full result tables, all in one place.

We’re making it available to everyone for now while we continue building it out. Feedback welcome.

1. Chicago PMI. The Chicago Business Barometer jumped to a +4-year high in May driven by increases in new orders (highest since Jan'22), order backlogs, and supplier deliveries. Price paid rose to the highest since May'22.

2. Cyclical GDP components. "Less than 20% of GDP drives 100% of recessions. Three components: Residential investment. Durable goods consumption. Business equipment investment. Today, only residential is contracting. One of three. Not enough to break the cycle."

3. Treasury yield pivots. "Did we just see the 10th pivot in rates since 2023?"

4. NDX rolling YoY. On a rolling YoY basis, Nasdaq-100 crossed above the +1 std threshold in April for the first time in over a year. That's only happened 7 other times since 1985 (small sample size caveat). NDX was up 12 months later 86% of the time. The live signal is standing out. Dive into the data here.

5. Q2 EPS revisions. "In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first two months of a quarter ... The second quarter marks the largest increase in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first two months of a quarter since Q3 2021 (+3.8%)."

ICYMI