"The most speculative traders panicked"

1. ISM Services PMI. "The US service economy expanded in March at a slower pace as employment shrank by the most since 2023 and input prices accelerated sharply."

2. CPI: 1970s vs. today. "Lots of stagflation chatter recently, prompted by a return of the '1970s replay' chart. Updates to that chart appear to use 1-year TIPS breakeven inflation rates, which aren't always accurate. The picture is much less concerning based on CPI swap rates."

3. Small trader puts. "The most speculative traders panicked. For only the 3rd week ever, the smallest options traders spent 1/3 of their volume buying put options to open. The only other weeks were at the height of the Covid washout."

4. 2025 vs. 2026 selloffs. "Last year’s price drop of -18.9% was way bigger than this selloff’s -9.1% max drawdown, but this year’s valuation pullback (-18.4%) is almost the same as what we’ve seen last year (-19.5%)."

5. Earnings estimates. "S&P 500 forward earnings continues to rise rapidly, while S&P 400 and S&P 600 forward earnings are also moving higher. The broadening breadth of forward earnings in recent months is a bullish development."

ICYMI