"Huge inflection point today"

1. JOLTS. "The private sector hiring rate just hit its lowest level since 2009. The layoff rate is still below pre-pandemic levels. Companies are not hiring. But they are not firing either. This is the 'no hire, no fire' economy in four charts".

2. US gas prices. "The US gasoline national average retail price has risen above $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022 ... It's the kind of price level that typically has triggered political alarms inside the White House (and Congress)."

3. Benchmarks vs. USO. "Huge inflection point today. Major stock indices $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM and $DIA all gained 2%+ while oil $USO fell over 1%. Similar setups showed up before major drawdowns in 2008, 2018 and 2022. But 2020 was the exception and markets bottomed just 4 days after first such move."

4. GLD put-call skew. "One asset that looks like it can have a sustained, high beta rally post de-escalation is Gold. The precious metal has sold off over 17% from its highs and positioning is significantly cleaner here. Implied volatility of puts are now trading over calls (unusual for Gold)".

5. Bear markets. "Looking at the other 11 bear markets since the S&P 500 became 500 stocks shows that they usually start with a quick drop from ATHs. In fact, down 5% in only 14.5 days on avg those times. The recent 5% mild pullback took a very long 35 trading days, which would by far be the most ever should this turn into a bear market."

ICYMI