"Analysts seem to have underestimated how much momentum there was in the economy heading into the Iran war"

1. Payroll breakeven. "Using newly available microdata that measure net unauthorized immigration through December 2025, an estimate of breakeven job growth is lower than previously thought and could be slightly negative. Monthly job change of -3,000 per month would have been enough to hold the unemployment rate steady between August and December. "

2. Economic surprise. "The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index is bumping up against the highest levels since late 2023. Analysts seem to have underestimated how much momentum there was in the economy heading into the Iran war."

3. Fed funds futures curve. "No joke: From cuts, to hikes, to unch in just three weeks."

4. SPX hedging. "Insurance being purchased for both tail moves, reflecting extreme uncertainty".

5. Selloff for ants. "This has been an oddly underdone reaction to a profound geopolitical shock. FTSE's index of all world stocks (including emerging and developed markets) peaked before the bombardment started, but is down only 8%. That's not the 10% many demand for a correction, and only the fifth-biggest selloff in this decade."

ICYMI