"Refunds for households are currently running at a rate that is 14% higher than last year"

1. Tax refunds. "We are in the middle of tax filing season, and the latest weekly data from the Treasury shows that refunds for households are currently running at a rate that is 14% higher than last year."

2. PCE forecasts. "Wall Street forecasters estimate the core PCE index (due Thursday) rose 0.39% in February, which would round to 0.4% for the third straight month. Because the Feb 2025 comparison is favorable (it was even higher a year ago), the 12-month rate is expected to hold at 3.0% (also, PPI revisions should pull January's figure down to 3.0% from 3.1%)."

3. Boomers vs. equities. "As the population is aging, defined contribution pensions are increasing net sellers of equities as net purchases of financial assets slow ... What this means for UST demand as households age and real yields rise, is that the baby-boomer generation is at the cusp of swapping equities for debt (bills and notes, mostly)."

4. Stairs down, elevator up. "One trend I have noticed is that the typical 'stairs up, elevator down' structure of returns seems to have changed. On a 3 year basis S&P500 returns have had the most positive skew in decades. We are in a 'stairs down, elevator up' environment. The era of TACO."

5. GPU demand. "As the Iran War has ebbed and flowed, GPU availability for B200s has collapsed to zero...H100s close behind. Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market. Unsurprising to see SMH less than 1% from a new ATH".

ICYMI