DC Lite #528

1. Economic surprises. “Eco surprises rising: Global Eco surprises have jumped to the highest in 2 years and accelerating in the US”.

2. ISM Manufacturing. “US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, energized by solid growth in new orders and production ... The ISM report showed a nearly 10-point increase in a gauge of new orders and a firm advance in the production index - both of which indicated the fastest growth in nearly four years.”

3. BTC whales. Bitcoin whales (i.e., addresses holding >1k bitcoin) have been accumulating since late 2025.

4. SPX Fibonacci extension. “The S&P 500 has just reached a major upside objective - the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2021-2022 bear market base ... If the S&P 500 can decisively break above 7,000 and hold that level, this bull market still has plenty of room to run. But until that happens, it’s worth considering what a more challenging environment might look like for equities.”

5. Quarterly earnings. “Right now, forward earnings are growing so fast that for every week the S&P 500 sits still, the market actually gets a little cheaper - about 0.3% per week. Keep it flat for a month, and valuations drop roughly 1.2%.”

ICYMI