DC Lite #478

"We are seeing emergent signs that AI is driving business formations"

Author

Daily Chartbook
November 12, 2025

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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. Rent growth. National apartment rents declined in October by the most (-0.31% MoM) in over 15 years.

2. AI vs. jobs. "Is AI the cause of labor market weakness? Then why have employment rates been getting weaker and weaker for non-college youth? This is a cyclical slowdown. Not an AI driven slowdown."

3. AI vs. business formation. "We are seeing emergent signs that AI is driving business formations. We also think the worst for firm birth-death model is over. As long as the Fed is willing (I like Mary Daly’s framing—what the Fed decides to do could either fan or choke a 90s style productivity boom) this trend could continue and we see more sustained labor productivity increase next year."

4. Healthcare rally. Healthcare’s 3-month returns suggest the recent rally is extended (+17%, +2Std above mean), but rolling YoY returns imply plenty of upside for the sector over the next 12 months (+5.6%, below mean).

5. Equity risk premium. "These negative risk premium charts circulating again. Reminder: stocks are real assets: EPS, Divs demonstrated they [grow] with inflation over time. Earnings Yields vs TIPs are the right comp. Risks premiums roughly 1/2 last 20 yrs but stocks still better than bonds. Rule of 72 says time to double purchasing power: 39 years in TIPS, 17 years in S&P 500."

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DC Lite #477

"Retail investors continue to add into weakness, becoming the new price setters"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-477

DC Lite #476

"Market-based inflation expectations falling like a rock"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-746

DC Lite #475

"We think that compared with the bubbles of the past, AI looks closer to the benign unleveraged variety"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-745

DC Lite #474

"Bloomberg Intelligence projects that generative AI alone could generate $1.8 trillion dollars in annual revenue by 2032"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-744

DC Lite #473

"LinkUp just forecasted that the U.S. economy lost 5,000 jobs in October"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-743

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