DC Lite #468

1. Hard vs. soft data. "Pay attention to what consumers and executives do, not just what they say. There are few signs of deterioration in retail spending, while CEOs are on the move with M&A deals, hefty capital expenditures, and record stock buyback activity."

2. Gold drop. "The last time gold dropped this much in a single day, it spent the following 3.5 years moving sideways. After doubling in 1.5 years, it wouldn’t be surprising if this marks the beginning of a prolonged consolidation phase."

3. AVWAP tests. "Three key risk-on, sensitive groups are challenging their AVWAPS from the April lows: Banks, Builders, and Bitcoin ... These levels mark the price the average investor has paid since that day — an important threshold to watch. Holding above them keeps buyers in control of the primary trend and supports a healthy market environment."

4. Defensives vs. SPX. "Even including Utilities, which has performed better of late, this has been the second-worst three-year stretch for defensive sectors (as a group) versus the S&P 500. The sectors have trailed by 52%, more than the run up to the dot com top and only trailing the post covid period."

5. Revisions breadth. "The 3-month percent changes in both forward revenues and earnings remain very strong."

ICYMI