DC Lite #464

1. New York manufacturing. The Empire State "manufacturing index unexpectedly surged back into expansionary territory, jumping to 10.7 and crushing the consensus estimate of −1.0. The six-month outlook more than doubled to 30.3 on optimism for favorable tax policy and AI investment."

2. Marginal foreign buyers. "Our findings suggest that Cayman Islands hedge funds are, increasingly, the marginal foreign buyers of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds ... between January 2022 and December 2024 ...they absorbed 37% of net issuance of notes and bonds, nearly the same amount as all other foreign investors combined."

3. US ETF flows. "This year’s flows have been so furious that every month has run at roughly 3.5 times the usual seasonal average, data from Bloomberg Intelligence through September showed. Analysts at BI project that 2025 could, all in all, see about $1.25 trillion in flows."

4. Households vs. equities. Since 2020, the value of equities held by households has risen: 300% for households under 40, 542% for the final 50% of households, and 50% for the middle 40% (10-50%) of households.

5. Small vs. Large. As a follow up to yesterday's chart showing small-caps at 8-month highs relative to large-caps: history suggests small-cap outperformance will continue over the next 1-2 months.

ICYMI