DC Lite #458

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1. Consumer credit. Total US consumer credit rose by just $363 million in August, the slowest pace in 6 months and well below expectations of a $14bn rise. Revolving credit dropped by $5.96bn, reversing much of the previous month's increase, while non-revolving rose by $6.32bn.

2. Gold forecast. "We raise our Dec2026 gold price forecast to $4,900/toz (vs. $4,300 prior) because the inflows driving the 17% rally since August 26th—Western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying—are sticky in our pricing framework, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast."

3. SMH vs. IGV flows. Flows to/from Semis and Software stocks—as proxied by SMH and IGV—have mirrored each other over the past year.

4. Cyclical reset. "The current advance is youthful if counted from April 2025 but mature if counted from Oct 2022. A near-classic sequence of breadth washout, breadth thrust, price momentum, and breadth recovery suggest that April 2025 was in fact a cyclical reset. What would negate this thesis?"

5. Nasdaq vs. ChatGPT. "The tech-heavy NASDAQ is now up 100% since the initial release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT model in late November 2022—the event that sparked the recent AI-driven rally."

ICYMI