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DC Lite #390
"We expect erosion of US 'exceptionalism', not its complete demise"
Daily Chartbook
July 01, 2025
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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.
1. JOLTS. Job openings rose unexpectedly by 374k in May (vs. -95k est) to the most since November. Quits ticked up while hires and layoffs & discharges ticked down.
2. Retail investor allocation. Retail investors increased their allocation to stocks in June. The 3.2pp monthly rise (to 67.5% from 64.3%) was the largest since December 2020.
3. Dash to trash. "The second quarter snap-back rally was led by the perceived lower quality baskets — the Dash to Trash. This pointed to retail buyers continuing to buy dips aggressively and the pain trade of positioning flipping to performance chasing."
4. Foreign investors vs. US equities. "We expect erosion of US 'exceptionalism', not its complete demise. What this means for portfolios is greater diversification in the allocation of new flows away from the dollar and US assets, not divestment from the existing stock of US assets ... foreign investors are not selling US stocks outright, but inflows have stopped."
5. Rally starting point. "The Shiller P/E ratio—a reliable long-term gauge—is pricier than it has been all but 4% of the time."
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