DC Lite #388

"Today marks the start of Summer ... Historically, summer has been the weakest season for equities, with average gains of just 0.6% over the past 40 years."

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Daily Chartbook
June 20, 2025

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Welcome back to DC Lite: Daily Chartbook’s free, entry-level newsletter containing 5 of the day’s best charts & insights.

1. EURUSD vs. timezones. "If you were to look at only returns during the US session this year, EUR/USD is flat YTD, roughly tracking relative rate differentials. But foreigners have cared little about fundamentals, they just want to GTFO of the dollar."

2. Active managers vs. US equities. The NAAIM Exposure Index rose to its highest level since mid-December.

3. Defensives vs. SPX. As a share of the S&P 500, the combined weight of Defensive sectors is at a +35-year low.

4. Seasonality. "Today marks the start of Summer … Historically, summer has been the weakest season for equities, with average gains of just 0.6% over the past 40 years."

5. Valuation vs. return. "There's little evidence from the long run of history that [high valuations] lead to poor returns."

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ICYMI

DC Lite #387

"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-387

DC Lite #386

"Annual interest payments are approaching a fifth of tax revenues"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-386

DC Lite #385

"Year-to-date inflows into US mutual funds and ETFs are on the verge of turning negative"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-385

DC Lite #384

"On a [day] like this, it is always important for investors to remember this chart"

www.dailychartbook.com/p/dc-lite-384

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