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DC Lite #385
"Year-to-date inflows into US mutual funds and ETFs are on the verge of turning negative"
Daily Chartbook
June 16, 2025
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1. WARN notices. "Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notifications (WARN) are rising. They are filed 60 days before the expected layoff event. So, WARN notices can be thought of as a leading indicator of unemployment. WARN notices jumped to 25,950 in May, the highest level since August 2023."
2. Gold ETF flows. "Last week global gold ETFs saw their largest weekly net inflows (US$2bn, 22 tonnes) since April. All regions contributed positively to the global picture, with North American funds seeing the largest demand."
3. Crypto asset flows. "Digital asset investment products saw US$1.9bn in inflows last week, marking the 9th consecutive week and a record YTD total of US$13.2bn. Bitcoin rebounded with US$1.3bn in inflows, while Ethereum saw US$583m inflows, its strongest since February."
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4. US equity fund flows. "Year-to-date inflows into US mutual funds and ETFs are on the verge of turning negative. And even after a well-timed surge in buying during the April selloff, investors have now actually pulled money out of funds since the market bottomed in early April."
5. Breadth thrust. "We are now one month removed from the spike in new 20-day highs in mid-May that produced a breadth thrust signal for the first time since the end of 2023 ... the behavior of the S&P 500 has been consistent with what has been experienced after previous breadth thrusts over the past 40+ years."
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